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«The normal distribution from scratch»
From the lesson “The Galton board: from chance to the bell curve”
Mathematics, physics, statistics, data analysis, machine learning.
1 chapter
A ball drops through rows of pegs and bounces left or right at random at every peg: nobody can tell where it will land. Yet after a few hundred balls, the bins always build the same bell shape.
Weather forecasts are computed from equations with nothing random in them, yet they lose reliability day after day. The reason already shows in a model of three equations:
A flock of starlings turns all at once, yet it has no leader: each bird reacts to the few neighbours around it.
In quantum mechanics an electron does not have a precise position, as a small ball does:
Faced with an uncertain future, some choices lose value and others gain it.
A simple pendulum is the very image of regularity. Hang a second one below the first and the motion becomes unpredictable, even though the formula that governs it is exact and contains nothing random.
A ball thrown at an oncoming train bounces back faster than it arrived. A probe that flies close to a moving planet does the same without touching it:
A quadratic function f(x)=ax2+bx+cf(x) = ax^2 + bx + cf(x)=ax2+bx+c draws a parabola, and at its vertex the function takes its largest or smallest value.
A startup whose revenue grows by the same percentage every month does not climb a straight line: it multiplies.
Training a model means adjusting its parameters until its errors are as small as possible. Gradient descent does this by always stepping downhill on the error surface.
Nobody tells the agent in the figure where the goal is or how to get there. It moves, collects rewards and penalties, and from them alone it learns which move is best in every cell.
A computer does not solve the equations of motion in one go: it moves the planet forward in many small time steps. Four lines of code, repeated, are enough to trace an orbit.
You show version A of a page to half of your visitors and version B to the other half, and B converts better. Is B really better, or did chance do it?